![]() To make matters worse, Kyler Murray is still coming back from ACL and meniscus tears, and there is still a ton of uncertainty as to if/when he'll return to action. The Cardinals have arguably the worst roster in the league and will be led by first-year head coach Jonathan Gannon, who hired first-year offensive coordinator Drew Petzing and first-year defensive coordinator Nick Rallis. » NAVIGATION « ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC LV | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WAS » Click for Sean Koerner's NFL Win Total Calculator Here « Last year, my win-total bets were 10-3 (+4.81 units), and that doesn't include a +200 pick on the 49ers to win the NFC West.Įvery pick below is to win one unit unless otherwise specified. I have a few books already in my tool, but you can use the Calculator columns to enter in whatever win total, along with the over/under price you have access to get the % edge I’m showing based on my sims. Since I’m projecting each team’s chances of finishing with exactly X number of wins, I’m able to calculate the odds for each win total. ![]() This is where my Win Total Calculator comes in handy. ![]() Win total markets can be tricky because books could offer different numbers with different money lines. The final step before locking in a bet is to find the best odds available. I try to factor in everything before locking in a bet. Koerner's Initial WR Fantasy Tiers for 2023 Read now Teams that finish significantly higher or lower than their expected record could have done so based on luck, especially one-score record luck. Pythagorean win totals: This calculation estimates a team’s record based on point differential. Therefore, I assume every team’s injury luck will regress back toward average the following season. Injuries are unpredictable but can significantly impact a team’s end-of-season record. Injury luck: By looking at Football Outsiders' Adjusted Games Lost metric, we can see which teams experienced the best to worst injury luck from a season ago. My logic is to always assume that their luck will regress back toward average the following season. 500 in one-score games, it usually causes the market to overestimate or underestimate that team based on their one-score luck. If a team ends up going a few games above/below. The idea here is that we can assume teams should finish right around a 50/50 record in one-score games. One-score record: A team’s record in one-score games. Some of the metrics you will see me refer to include: I also attempt to dig into other metrics that indicate which teams were lucky/unlucky last season, which could result in the market being too high/low on a given team. I use many metrics when coming up with my team ratings, but they factor in the team’s current roster, any potential injuries/suspensions that would impact their given odds on any given week, and also the coaching staff. The main data point I use to decide is the percent chance a team will go over or under any given number based on my season-long simulator that’s based on my team ratings. There are many factors that I look into when deciding on taking a side for each team’s win total. This sheet, which you can download here, will be updated throughout training camp whenever news breaks or something changes that will affect my projections.īetting on NFL win totals is a great way to invest in or against a team’s upcoming season. ![]() Welcome to my 2023 NFL Win Total Calculator, which I used to make my NFL picks for 2023 season win totals.
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